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OFFICIAL Japan Earthquake/Tsunami Discussion Thread

62 posts in this topic

Phew. A few points to make here.

Yes, earthquakes do sometimes happen in the north-east USA. Some are strong enough to feel. Some, although not in recent history, have been stronger. The chances of one happening strong enough to cause significant damage are vanishingly small.

Whether or not a submarine earthquake is tsunamigenic depends primarily on the magnitude, the orientation of the fault plane, and the direction of the movement; a dip-slip or overthrust quake is much more likely to produce a significant tsunami than a strike-slip quake.

I'd totally argue with that. First, the mantle plume responsible for Yellowstone moves (or more accurately, the North American plate moves relative to the hotspot), so there's no guarantee that the next big eruption will be at Yellowstone; it may be at a new location. Second, VEI 8+ eruptions on that plume have a return period of something like 600,000 - 700,000 years; that's enough for several ice age cycles, and there's evidence that ice ages and the accompanying changes in sea levels are themselves tsunamigenic; they result in unstable continental shelves. So the smart money has to be on the tsunami.

Whoa. They're both parts of geology, and volcanology is pretty good these days; we're much, MUCH better at predicting eruptions than earthquakes!

I'm not going to touch that with a bargepole!

Mike

While I certainly cannot disagree with anything you say I can say this, we have been monitoring earthquakes and volcanos for hundreds of years and yes we are better at predicting eruptions than earthquakes. However, depending on your opinion, education and point of view one can argue that the dynamics of earthquakes are much better understood because of its relationship to physics where as volcanos are much more dynamic systems that are much more unique and varied. While I can describe the relative motion of each tectonic plate, I can not describe, model and understand all of the forces at work in a volcano as I can for a tectonic motion. Although let me admit that my geologic training is not in the field volcanology, my training and research focuses much more on environmental, geomorphological and mineral geology. And with this I fear we have lost most of the membership of the Bravo, although please continue if you wish......

Edited by bvfdjc316

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It's a bit like building construction; it's good to know what might kill you rolleyes.gif

I'll leave you with one; if you want to frighten yourself, if you think Yellowstone is bad, ask your prof. about La Garita...

Mike

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How would a fire dept prepare for such a major event such as a tsunami/earthquake? Can you REALLY be prepared for it? Other than treating it like a super sized MCI, what else can they do?

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Mike, correct that was the book. All you have to look at is the number of events of the last few years. Earthquake activity has increased or at least they have become more noticeable. So have volcanic activity. Not that I believe in Nostradamus' theory but catastrophic events are on the increase worldwide.

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Coming up later this month (March 19 to be exact) the moon will make its closest approach to Earth (called lunar perigee) in 18 years. A new or full moon at 90% or greater of its closest perigee to Earth has been named a “SuperMoon” by astrologer Richard Nolle.

Can this Super Moon contribute to extreme weather?

Extreme super moon 2011

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Coming up later this month (March 19 to be exact) the moon will make its closest approach to Earth (called lunar perigee) in 18 years. A new or full moon at 90% or greater of its closest perigee to Earth has been named a "SuperMoon" by astrologer Richard Nolle.

Can this Super Moon contribute to extreme weather?

Extreme super moon 2011

No. Pure unadulterated BS. Geology prof. Erik Klemetti does a good job of debunking this: http://bigthink.com/ideas/31585

Mike

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In a word, yes but there is a much larger risk of an Earthquake under New York City than a tsunami ever hitting the East Coast. Without going to deep into the geophysics and geology of the issue, the tectonic plate that comprises the entire East Coast and all the US upto California is moving away from its boardering plates. This creates a rift valley (the mid-atlantic trench). The rift valley is fairly stable because that is where the new oceanic crust is formed from the magma bellow. Where this earthquake, creating the tsunami occurred is at a subduction zone, where one plate flows under another. These are significantly less stable, especially in Japan where a heavier oceanic crust is flowing under a lighter continental crust. The rift valley that is forming in the atlantic is where two oceanic crusts with similar densities are splitting apart. Basically, there are significantly different geologic processes occurring in the Atlantic vs. the Pacific. This crustal movement is why we find different types of fossils on different continents, essentially where the land masses are currently is not where they were 100 million years ago, which is not where they were 500 million years ago, which is not where they were 1 billion years ago, which is not where they where 4 billion years ago. While you can not say that it will never happen, the planetary forces that are at work, and have been at work since the dawn of time make it very, very unlikely, but not impossible.

If anyone wants my sources or links or any further info PM me because I really do not want to get too in-depth with the science here because it really is very technical and unless you really do know what is being discussed, it will not make any sense to you and actually confuse you more. The only reason I commented is because this is one aspect of a larger topic my advisor and professors have been studying for 30 years.

In a sentence, "you completely missed the point of the original question". The question wasn't intended to start a geophysics or geology discussion (not that it hasn't been entertaining); it was about emergency preparedness. "Are we prepared" not "Is it likely"?

So, I would like you elaborate on your "yes" we're prepared statement. In the very unlikely event that the east coast was hit by a tsunami or other comparable weather phenomenon (storm surge, hurricane, etc.), do you really think we're capable of handling that?

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How would a fire dept prepare for such a major event such as a tsunami/earthquake? Can you REALLY be prepared for it? Other than treating it like a super sized MCI, what else can they do?

How about (just some random thoughts)...

- evacuation plans?

- staffing plans?

- continuity of operations plans?

- dealing with concerns about family members (where will the families of the responders be/how will they be taken care of)?

- equipment/infrastructure failure?

- communications failure?

- multiple simultaneous responses?

- multiple simultaneous large scale responses?

- mass fatalities?

- mass casualties?

- unavailability of traditional mutual aid?

...to name a few.

Is your agency prepared now to respond to a "super MCI"? If the answer's no, there's certainly room to plan!!!

ems-buff likes this

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In a sentence, "you completely missed the point of the original question". The question wasn't intended to start a geophysics or geology discussion (not that it hasn't been entertaining); it was about emergency preparedness. "Are we prepared" not "Is it likely"?

So, I would like you elaborate on your "yes" we're prepared statement. In the very unlikely event that the east coast was hit by a tsunami or other comparable weather phenomenon (storm surge, hurricane, etc.), do you really think we're capable of handling that?

The manor in which I answered the question was instead of asking are we prepared, I pointed out the likelihood of it occurring in the first place. We dont prepare for monsoons because we dont get any, we dont prepare for sand storms because we dont get any. So instead of answering what we would do if one happened, a question I don't have the answer to, I answered whether it could occur in the first place.

If someone had asked is the East Coast prepared for monsoon season my answers would have been the same, yes it is possible but the odds of it occurring are small enough that we dont actually prepare for it beyond what would be done for a hurricane. (I am open to debate my terminology because the difference between a monsoon and hurricane is mostly geographical.)

Another question that would have had the same type of answer is are we prepared to deal with a zombie apocalypse? Is it possible yes, but no we are not prepared. The reasons for my answer are all the same, before considering are we prepared, we should be considering if it can even happen.

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The manor in which I answered the question was instead of asking are we prepared, I pointed out the likelihood of it occurring in the first place. We dont prepare for monsoons because we dont get any, we dont prepare for sand storms because we dont get any. So instead of answering what we would do if one happened, a question I don't have the answer to, I answered whether it could occur in the first place.

If someone had asked is the East Coast prepared for monsoon season my answers would have been the same, yes it is possible but the odds of it occurring are small enough that we dont actually prepare for it beyond what would be done for a hurricane. (I am open to debate my terminology because the difference between a monsoon and hurricane is mostly geographical.)

Another question that would have had the same type of answer is are we prepared to deal with a zombie apocalypse? Is it possible yes, but no we are not prepared. The reasons for my answer are all the same, before considering are we prepared, we should be considering if it can even happen.

You stated, "yes", we are prepared notwithstanding the likelihood of the specific event.

I expanded the event types to include events much more likely on the east coast, hurricanes, storm surges, tropical storms, or nor'easters since a tsunami is highly UNlikely.

I will restate my question again, do you really believe that the we (the northeast US) are prepared for one of the above phenomena?

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I believe that we are more prepared than we realize. We have plans, resources, mechanisms etc etc of handling disasters and incidents that many countries do not have. Taking the tsunami example, if an earthquake occurred at the Mid-Atlantic Trench causing a tsunami, even if it was traveling 500 miles per hour, it would not reach the US shores for at least 2 hours. We can reach people via TV, internet, radio, newspaper, telephone, cell phone, text message etc etc using these new methods of communication we can inform the public at risk what to do and how to prepare for this disaster. In that two hours I do not think we could evacuate major population centers or low lying areas but we could at least mobilize and activate vast amounts of resources. I would be willing to bet that within 6 hours of the notification of a impending natural disaster we as a country could mobilize enough resources between first responders, the military, private industry and government this side of the mississippi to handle the first stage of the incident. I have nothing to base my theory on nor am I commenting on its effectiveness, but I do believe we could be prepared if we had enough pre-warning.

Edited by bvfdjc316

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Just remember, 911, how long before the fed responded? Even National Guard. I don't think I saw anything that even resembled military for 2 days.

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You stated, "yes", we are prepared notwithstanding the likelihood of the specific event.

I expanded the event types to include events much more likely on the east coast, hurricanes, storm surges, tropical storms, or nor'easters since a tsunami is highly UNlikely.

I will restate my question again, do you really believe that the we (the northeast US) are prepared for one of the above phenomena?

In a simple answer, no. We are not on par with places like LA for swiftwater rescue. How often is it seen the LAFD plucking someone out of a swollen spillway via ropeline, or LAFD helicopter? Often enough... and that is usually just from flash floods, or some idiot who gets themselves into a predicament for being stupid. That is NOTHING as compared to a tsunami...

Not saying there are not entities around the area that couldn't perform these tasks, but the sheer force and magnitude of destructiveness of a tsunami would overwhelm any amount of trained personnel in this area. The "minor/moderate" flooding from rainstorms this past week had area crews taxed for a while just pumping out basements, not imagine all of that magnified by THOUSANDS as water carries vehicles, houses, communities, and most importantly, people, away with it.

Still think the Northeast is prepared?

Just remember, 911, how long before the fed responded? Even National Guard. I don't think I saw anything that even resembled military for 2 days.

And let's not even get into the Fed response to Katrina, that puts FULL faith into that response, for a HURRICANE that they SAW and KNEW were coming!!!!! Tsunami's don't always get seen approaching, sometimes, not until they hit the shallows, and the 'wave' becomes noticeable.

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We better hurry and make those patches--after all mother nature has been working on this since the dawn of time. Are we prepard?? look at the havoc mother nature just caused in Elmsford, the answer is we arent even close to being prepared.

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The manor in which I answered the question was instead of asking are we prepared, I pointed out the likelihood of it occurring in the first place. We dont prepare for monsoons because we dont get any, we dont prepare for sand storms because we dont get any. So instead of answering what we would do if one happened, a question I don't have the answer to, I answered whether it could occur in the first place.

Most of the concepts in emergency managment planning revolve around what is known as "all hazard plans". we start with a hazard assessment, which ranks all potential hazards, the likelyhood of occurance and the potential severity. We make sure that the most like events and the most disasterious events are planned for 1st. But the all hazard concept, covers even disasters we dont plan for, because most of the concepts are the same.

You say we don't respond to monsoons so we don't need to plan for them, yes technically we don't get "monsoons" but we do get enough rain that the same effects are there.

Another question that would have had the same type of answer is are we prepared to deal with a zombie apocalypse? Is it possible yes, but no we are not prepared. The reasons for my answer are all the same, before considering are we prepared, we should be considering if it can even happen.

Wrong. Can plans get hyjacked and flown into buildings? 10 years ago many would say no, but the concept of a fire in a highrise and even a plane into a building are all part of all hazard planning.

How about (just some random thoughts)...

- evacuation plans?

- staffing plans?

- continuity of operations plans?

- dealing with concerns about family members (where will the families of the responders be/how will they be taken care of)?

- equipment/infrastructure failure?

- communications failure?

- multiple simultaneous responses?

- multiple simultaneous large scale responses?

- mass fatalities?

- mass casualties?

- unavailability of traditional mutual aid? ...to name a few. Is your agency prepared now to respond to a "super MCI"? If the answer's no, there's certainly room to plan!!!

Thanks Chris

Thats "all hazard planning". Some or all of these items would be needed during almost every major emergency. The motto has always been: "Failing to plan is planning to fail"

It is very clear that most communities have not done the planning needed to protect itself, even for minor emergencies.

I believe that we are more prepared than we realize. We have plans, resources, mechanisms etc etc of handling disasters and incidents that many countries do not have.

While we may have more than some 3rd world countries, have you ever watched the news. We prove how unprepared we are with almost every minor incident. We have local communites that page EMS for 45 minutes for a single ambulance. Need 6-10 fire depts. for a bedroom fire. And whats needed for a major emergency?

Taking the tsunami example, if an earthquake occurred at the Mid-Atlantic Trench causing a tsunami, even if it was traveling 500 miles per hour, it would not reach the US shores for at least 2 hours. We can reach people via TV, internet, radio, newspaper, telephone, cell phone, text message etc etc using these new methods of communication we can inform the public at risk what to do and how to prepare for this disaster.

We have a number of methods, but they are less effective than you make out. You can only text, e-mail those who have pre-registered (less than 3% of the population). VOIP phones are generally not on the 9-1-1 / reverse 9-1-1 system. Cell phones are also "off" the alert system. The rest rely on people being "on" during the emergency.

In that two hours I do not think we could evacuate major population centers or low lying areas but we could at least mobilize and activate vast amounts of resources. I would be willing to bet that within 6 hours of the notification of a impending natural disaster we as a country could mobilize enough resources between first responders, the military, private industry and government this side of the mississippi to handle the first stage of the incident. I have nothing to base my theory on nor am I commenting on its effectiveness, but I do believe we could be prepared if we had enough pre-warning.

We have never been able to do it before. FEMA always told us 48-72 hours was needed to mobilize resources, then after Katrina they changed it to 72-96 hours as the minimum.

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I've often wondered what the ramifications would be if an earthquake the size of the one that just hit japan were to hit the New York Metropolitan area, especially in view of the fact that I'm told that the Indian Point Nuclear Power Plant sits on or near the Ramapo fault. While we've had tremors before, they are nothing compared to what Japan underwent this time.

In the event of a cooling failure or worst case scenario a meltdown were to occur, do the counties have a pre-plan in effect that would warn the population and then a means of transporting or causing highways to be open exclusively for and exodus of vehicles leaving the tri-state area? If there is a plan, has it been updated recently or are there cobwebs on the filing cabinet?

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I believe that we are more prepared than we realize. We have plans, resources, mechanisms etc etc of handling disasters and incidents that many countries do not have. Taking the tsunami example, if an earthquake occurred at the Mid-Atlantic Trench causing a tsunami, even if it was traveling 500 miles per hour, it would not reach the US shores for at least 2 hours. We can reach people via TV, internet, radio, newspaper, telephone, cell phone, text message etc etc using these new methods of communication we can inform the public at risk what to do and how to prepare for this disaster. In that two hours I do not think we could evacuate major population centers or low lying areas but we could at least mobilize and activate vast amounts of resources. I would be willing to bet that within 6 hours of the notification of a impending natural disaster we as a country could mobilize enough resources between first responders, the military, private industry and government this side of the mississippi to handle the first stage of the incident. I have nothing to base my theory on nor am I commenting on its effectiveness, but I do believe we could be prepared if we had enough pre-warning.

Having plans and being able to implement them effectively are two totally different things. How many local communities have current Comprehensive Emergency Management Plans (CEMP)? How many communities routinely exercise them with realistic scenarios for their community? How many CEMP's have different communities using the same resources for response? Hmmm, how can 10 places use the same buses?

Being able to mobilize large numbers of resources and effectively manage/utilize them are also two vastly different things. Sure, we can call for hundreds of resources but how many emergency managers, emergency services chiefs, etc. are well versed and practiced in the management of that many resources? What resources would be mobilized? How many? From where? To where? For what? Is it realistic for all that to be done in the 2 hours you use as your warning time? Too many unanswered questions and speculation.

Sure, we can notify lots of people but what are going to tell them to do? The southeastern states all have coastal storm plans, most have evacuation routes, some even exercise them. What do we have in the northeast? Even with no formal warning/instructions, people will evacuate or relocate jamming the roads and creating even more problems. What's the plan for that?

The military and federal government resources will take as Barry noted 72-96 hours to be operational on the ground. Sure, some advance assets may pop up here or there but the organized response of national assets is 3-4 days away, not six hours. The private sector? What agencies/resources in the private sector? Do we have agreements in place to use their resources? Who manages them?

If the response isn't effective, what good is it? Here's a warning... the northeastern United States will be hit by a significant hurricane. This is the same warning that has been communicated to us almost every year for decades. We've had them, we know hurricane season is coming again and yet we still don't have effective plans to deal with them so IMHO we are not prepared. And hurricanes give us almost a week's notice to get the plan in motion.

For years money has been pushed out of the Federal government to plan, prepare, etc. etc. and what do we have to show for it? As a nation are we truly better prepared? Have our capabilities improved? Is our capacity greater than it was? Do we really have the wherewithal to deal with some of the things we've been told to prepare for? Sadly I don't think we've gotten as much for our dollar as we should have.

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I've often wondered what the ramifications would be if an earthquake the size of the one that just hit japan were to hit the New York Metropolitan area, especially in view of the fact that I'm told that the Indian Point Nuclear Power Plant sits on or near the Ramapo fault. While we've had tremors before, they are nothing compared to what Japan underwent this time.

In the event of a cooling failure or worst case scenario a meltdown were to occur, do the counties have a pre-plan in effect that would warn the population and then a means of transporting or causing highways to be open exclusively for and exodus of vehicles leaving the tri-state area? If there is a plan, has it been updated recently or are there cobwebs on the filing cabinet?

There are plans for Indian Point and they are regularly updated and "exercised". Each of the four counties (Westchester, Rockland, Putnam, and Orange) that would be immediately affected by IP are involved as is New York State, the NRC, FEMA, and others.

There definitely aren't cobwebs on the filing cabinet as the plans are almost continually being reviewed and updated.

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There are plans for Indian Point and they are regularly updated and "exercised". Each of the four counties (Westchester, Rockland, Putnam, and Orange) that would be immediately affected by IP are involved as is New York State, the NRC, FEMA, and others.

There definitely aren't cobwebs on the filing cabinet as the plans are almost continually being reviewed and updated.

Helicopper - I think Indian Point is ideally a perfect example for plans being in writting and yet not always working. IP has a siren alarm notification system, which is tested routinely. But it has seemed to me that with every test they find that the majority of the sirens do not work?? I think that as a country in a whole we are making to many modern Action Plans with insufficiate outdated equipment.

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On a site note.... What ever happened to the War Time Era use of Sirens? In the mid west they are still being used as Tornado Notifications. Maybe it is just me, but people dont think twice up in the North East when that siren fires up? Perhaps we should get an National system up, as they did with the air-raid notifications of years ago?

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Not that I believe in Nostradamus' theory but catastrophic events are on the increase worldwide.

Here's a thought, are the number of events increasing or is the amount of "up-to-the-minute" 24 hour a day media coverage of these events increasing. Lets face it - 1 earthquake/wildfire/flood/etc = 24/7 coverage on 5 networks for 2+ weeks and front page news stories for 3 to 4 days because it sells and it stays in the forefront with every possible spin from the wind to the people trapped to the earth crust to global warming to you name it. It gives the impression that the world is ending but when you take a step back you realize nothing has really changed that much.

Edited by PEMO3
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Having plans and being able to implement them effectively are two totally different things. ....

Sure, we can notify lots of people but what are going to tell them to do? The southeastern states all have coastal storm plans, most have evacuation routes, some even exercise them. What do we have in the northeast? Even with no formal warning/instructions, people will evacuate or relocate jamming the roads and creating even more problems. What's the plan for that?

In one of my wife's American Planning Association journals that came out shortly after Hurricane Katrina, there was an article about NYC's ability (actually, inability) to effectively evacuate, even with sufficient warning. From what I remember of the article, a bit more than half of NYC's population live without cars and would rely on mass transit to evacuate. It is estimated that evacuations would require 24 hours or so. In a very quick internet search, I found an estimate of 56% without cars and 17.5 hours for an orderly evacuation.

Granted, a majority of contributors to this site are not from NYC, but NYC is not the alone in this problem. In the case of an impending hurricane (with a day or two advance notice), low lying areas of Westchester would likely be asked to relocate/evacuate. This would still take some time. There are only a limited number of ways out of this area (bridges, tunnels, etc). A Ramapo fault earthquake (which, as was stated earlier, does run very close to Indian Point, and would give NO advanced warning) could trigger an evacuation that is not limited to only the low-lying areas. Either way, not every resident in Westchester has access to a car and would rely on some form of mass transit.

I looked through the Indian Point evacuation plan that everyone within 10 miles of IP receives in the mail over the weekend. I suppose I'm lucky that an evacuation bus route (m118) runs down my road and stops at the 2nd closest corner to my house. Then again, that bus route won't do any good if the bus driver doesn't decide to take off and leave the area on his own instead of going to get his bus.

I'll see if I can get an estimate of Ossining's population without cars. I'm sure there's ways to find out this number for all municipalities in Westchester. In the discussion of natural disaster preparedness, this is a factor that I would assume is taken into account. For the rest of us who aren't included in the preparation plans, it's something to keep in mind.

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eferman I believe that 17.5 hour study is an evacuation of just NYC. There was a complaint that a true natural disaster would also involve the evacuation much of the surrounding area pushing NYC's evacuation well past 24 hours.

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eferman I believe that 17.5 hour study is an evacuation of just NYC. There was a complaint that a true natural disaster would also involve the evacuation much of the surrounding area pushing NYC's evacuation well past 24 hours.

You are correct. And not to argue, but my point in that reference was that an evacuation (in the case of a tsunami, hurricane, earthquake, etc) would take much longer and therefore need a tremendous amount of resources to accomplish. Some natural disasters give a bit more warning than others, and many factors (access to cars) about the populations involved need to be considered when planning.

The warning time for the tsunami in Japan would have been somewhere in the order an hour for some of the more distant locations. 15 - 20 minutes for the locations closer to the earthquake epicenter. A nearly impossible task to evacuate in those circumstances.

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Was just reading through some of the news.....looks like the japanese government has confirmed that there is, at the very least, partial meltdown of reactor cores in reactors 1, 2 & 3. No indications that the molten core has burned through the reactor vessel.

Not particularly good news, but as long as the reactor vessels are not breached the radiological fall out should be manageable if not negligible (like they were at 3 mile island). The biggest radiological concerns i have are related to the release or escape of iodoine-131 and Cesium-137. Iodine settles in the thyroid....especially in children and cesium is absorbed and stored in the muscles and bones (primarily muscle tissue) because the body mistakes it for potassium.

As a side bar, don't listen to any of the news organizations who try and relate this to the April 1986 incident @ Chernobyl's #4 reactor. the RBMK-1000 reactor was a graphite moderated reactor w/ no containment vessel or building....and allowed the core to burn, fueled by the graphite, openly for weeks.

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A couple of things that have come to my mind seeing this incident - more so the nuclear aspect.

I know there exist caches of equipment, decontamination stuff etc in the 4 counties around Indian Point - but who knows how to use it? How long would that take to set up?

Secondly, I've often heard both inside and outside of emergency services that a nuclear incident / accident would build up over time. In this case given the earthquake, tsunami and everything else, it has been days in the making - which should give time to evacuate. However, initially, I'm sure there would be chaos with self evacuations.

Thirdly, how much faith are people going to have in the 'spin' from the Government, Entity etc? As it is now there are plenty of 'skeptical' experts out there. Who do you believe? Do you believe EPA in the wake of 911?

At the very least, there should be lots of additional real life information to consider when next reviewing IP's emergency plans.

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Helicopper - I think Indian Point is ideally a perfect example for plans being in writting and yet not always working. IP has a siren alarm notification system, which is tested routinely. But it has seemed to me that with every test they find that the majority of the sirens do not work?? I think that as a country in a whole we are making to many modern Action Plans with insufficiate outdated equipment.

Wrong.

All of the sirens work most of the time, a very few do not work some of the time. This is why they are tested and maintained. Not every test of the siren system is to ensure that they actually sound, sometimes it's only to ensure that their receivers work.It is also why then-Senator Clinton pushed for the installation of an initially very troublesome battery powered back-up siren system, which was a nightmare to bring on-line. But we persevered, and the counties now have a working siren system, with redundancy.

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One "agency" that is supposed to respond is the NY Guard.. Not the NY National Guard, but the NY Guard...

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