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bfd34180

OFFICIAL TS/Hurricane Sandy Thread

188 posts in this topic

hey guys has anyone heard any info or anymore info regarding the possibility of tropical storm sandy hitting our area i know the forcast models ( last i checked) showed it could slam our area or head off to sea, ive also heard it could turn into a snowy type of event. what do you all think about this?

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if you are on facebook, like Forensic Weather Consultants (Meteorologist Howard Altschule)...he was spot on with Irene and the Halloween storm of last year...he certainly has my attention on this one!

Quoted from Forensic Weather Consultants Facebook page 10/23/12

"The overnight computer models should be quite interesting. My gut feeling is that more model ensembles and solutions will trend closer to the Northeast Coastline. Why? The ECMWF and many of the GEFS ensembles are suggesting a massive storm affecting the Northeast (direct impacts in NJ, NYC, LI and CT). The Operational GFS model seems out to lunch still...but even it has trended a little further west. So, I'll have an update tomorrow morning, but I would not be surprised if more computer models indicate a major storm landfalling in the Northeast next week as a Super-Storm."

"UPDATE: While there is still some chance that this super-storm could go oout to sea, the specialists at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) agree that the Euro is the most reliable and beliveable scenario with this storm. It should most likely be a monstrous Post-Tropical system but with the equivalent strength of a powerful hurricane (just minus the warm core). I suspect that boats and ships will have to completely shut down any traffic from the Carolinas to the Northeast from Sunday through Wednesday as the thought of potential 25-40 Foot Waves is nauseating enough. In addition and highly troubling, is the fact that astronomical high tide and a full moon will occur Sunday Night. This will likely add a couple of feet to the ocean heights along the coast, thus creating a significant and potentially damaging storm surge and erosion in Long Island, CT and MA. Stay tuned."

Edited by SKE#2HAHN
wraftery and x4093k like this

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Ugh, I'm 900 miles away from my Emergency Operations Center, naturally this would happen this week.

Fingers crossed that this is a no-go.

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On the news this am 5 out of 6 models showed it slamming between NJ and Mass. ... Looks like there is a good chance we all might be a little busy later this weekend.

Remember to make sure our families are ok and start prepping for them as well at home.

EMS92, SageVigiles and JM15 like this

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I hope we get a nice snow storm, honestly lol..

rfdu39, voltage1256 and firedude like this

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I saw on the news last night where the Canadian model shows a direct hit on Boston while all the others showed the storm farther east......lol

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It is looking more and more likely that we are going to be on the receiving end of some level of wild weather since as of 11am today 14 of the 20 usual forecast models show the storm turning back toward the northeast, New England or Canada in one way or another. Better keep a close key eye on this one.

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Here is a link to a site that provides different weather details and computer predictions:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/

Here is a link to forcasted precipitation which predicts several days of atmospheric predictions:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_looper.php?PROD=2012102412_EUS_GFS_SFC_SLP_PWAT_WINDS

Play around with the different options, it's amazing but remeber this is only one computer model

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As of this morning, the GFS model (US) shows it going out to sea while the EU Model (European) shows the storm making a direct path towards the NYC area.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYWHzk0gbcM

Lets hope the U.S. is right!!!

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From News 12 Westchester's Joe Rao:

"Here are the various scenarios: the 12Z European model has Sandy making landfall over the Delmarva Peninsula on Monday morning, then moving northwest to near Williamsport, PA by Tuesday morning. The Navy Model (NOGAPS) has Sandy hitting New York City on Monday morning. The Canadian Global Model brings Sandy to Cape Cod and Boston by Tuesday morning, while the United Kingdom and GFS models both have Sandy scoring a direct hit on coastal Maine on Tuesday night.

Normally you look for consistency among the models, and to this end, the European model has been the best in indicating that Sandy would ultimately curve back to the west and adversely impact the US East Coast, while all the other models pushed her out to sea. Now, however, those other models are coming around to the idea of recurvature back toward the coast. So right now, it would seem that somewhere running in a corridor from the Delmarva coast northeast to coastal Maine, in a time frame lasting from Monday morning to Tuesday evening, major storm system sporting sustained winds of possibly 70 m.p.h. along with torrential/drenching rains is going to hit."

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From News 12 Westchester's Joe Rao:

"Here are the various scenarios: the 12Z European model has Sandy making landfall over the Delmarva Peninsula on Monday morning, then moving northwest to near Williamsport, PA by Tuesday morning. The Navy Model (NOGAPS) has Sandy hitting New York City on Monday morning. The Canadian Global Model brings Sandy to Cape Cod and Boston by Tuesday morning, while the United Kingdom and GFS models both have Sandy scoring a direct hit on coastal Maine on Tuesday night.

Normally you look for consistency among the models, and to this end, the European model has been the best in indicating that Sandy would ultimately curve back to the west and adversely impact the US East Coast, while all the other models pushed her out to sea. Now, however, those other models are coming around to the idea of recurvature back toward the coast. So right now, it would seem that somewhere running in a corridor from the Delmarva coast northeast to coastal Maine, in a time frame lasting from Monday morning to Tuesday evening, major storm system sporting sustained winds of possibly 70 m.p.h. along with torrential/drenching rains is going to hit."

I wouldnt trust Joe Rao

Disaster_Guy and fireboyny like this

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I wouldnt trust Joe Rao

He's always been fairly accurate and he's just relaying what the models are showing. Dislike him/like him, it doesn't matter. Regardless, it's too early to tell right now what it's going to do. The Hurricane center sent up planes in 4 waves today to study the storm and gather data. We'll get a better idea once that data is analyzed and as it comes closer to the US.

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He's always been fairly accurate and he's just relaying what the models are showing. Dislike him/like him, it doesn't matter. Regardless, it's too early to tell right now what it's going to do. The Hurricane center sent up planes in 4 waves today to study the storm and gather data. We'll get a better idea once that data is analyzed and as it comes closer to the US.

Even once the planes and weather balloons report back their data, the intensity and final direction of the Sandy will all depend on a "deepening upper level low pressure system" (according to the our regional National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Outlook), which will not necessarily be known until several days from now if not later.

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Snowstorm last Halloween, hurricane this Halloween... I can only imagine what comes next year!

stink bugs

BFD1054 likes this

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Even once the planes and weather balloons report back their data, the intensity and final direction of the Sandy will all depend on a "deepening upper level low pressure system" (according to the our regional National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Outlook), which will not necessarily be known until several days from now if not later.

Hence the reason why this is all speculation at this point.

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Awesome. Mother nature screwing up bow season for the second year in a row....as if it already hasnt rained on ALL of my days off so far this month.....

fireboyny likes this

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We're starting to feel the effects of Sandy now, light breezes expected to increase as the day goes on and get sustained to around 30 mph with gusts in 40 mph range. Some rain with it but nothing like Isaac that flooded us out.

Palm Beach County schools closing 3 hours early today and closed tomorrow as a precaution.

It's staying far enough off shore and not big (wide) enough to do us any damage, just some inconvenience.

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Well thats no bueno... From what I've been seeing they are expecting a Northern NJ or NYC landfall point for the hurricane/blizzard thingy

x4093k likes this

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Jim Cantore: "I never thought I would see another Super Outbreak after 1974. It happened. I never thought I'd see another Perfect Storm. Its happening."
rfdu39 likes this

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